Entire-Vignette
0x21a3b59a4ce433171af26be29d5b5242bad09e97
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$-7.4K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1645 shares @ 39.1¢·now 48.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$797.82
$154.16
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
1645 shares @ 45.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$732.02
$-8.49
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
380 shares @ 75.8¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$324.71
$36.64
- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
295 shares @ 43.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$240.40
$113.55
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
195 shares @ 27.5¢·now 38.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$75.08
$21.37
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
380 shares @ 18.4¢·now 14.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$54.91
$-15.02
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
195 shares @ 26.2¢·now 25.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$48.75
$-2.37
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1645 shares @ 7.1¢·now 2.6¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$43.59
$-72.80
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1645 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.9¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$32.08
$10.99
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
195 shares @ 18.6¢·now 14.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$28.27
$-8.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?$135.00Jul 16, 11:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?$225.00Jul 16, 04:23 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$7.35Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?$95.00Jul 8, 04:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$45.00Jul 7, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$45.00Jul 6, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?$10.00Jul 4, 09:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?$235.00Jul 4, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026$10.00Jul 2, 15:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June?$75.00Jul 2, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?$105.00Jul 2, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026?$55.00Jul 1, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on June 30, 2026?$50.00Jul 1, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?$5.00Jul 1, 22:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026?$95.00Jul 1, 22:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026?$170.00Jul 1, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?$20.00Jul 1, 13:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$240.00Jul 1, 08:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?$510.00Jul 1, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?$215.00Jul 1, 08:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $1.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 05:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 11:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.