Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
21¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$104.02
Liquidity
$7.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 484h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $7.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 484.5h
- 19:30SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 484h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.
Biggest hourly move: -8.5pp at 2d ago (to 22¢).
Show all 5 hour-by-hour ticks
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumeurovision.tv
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.