Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-10.0pp
24h Vol
$177.22
Liquidity
$495.11
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarywhich show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United StatesTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (36.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 10pp over 24h
Now 31¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 60h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 36.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 60 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarywhich show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United StatesTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (36.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 59.8h
- 12:09SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 60h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-10.0pp over the last 24h, now 31¢.
Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at 12:00 (to 31¢).
Show 2 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +5.5pp → 31¢
- 11:00 · +5.0pp → 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 43¢+13.5
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Entertainment · Vol $812.19
- 2¢-20.5
Will "Hulk Hogan: Real American" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Entertainment · Vol $57.00
- 20¢-4.0
Will "Straight to Hell: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Entertainment · Vol $57.37
- 50¢0.0
Will "Show A" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will "Show C" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will "Show E" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will "Show G" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will "Show I" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 0¢0.0
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?
Entertainment · Vol $172.3K
- 35¢+0.3
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Entertainment · Vol $130.7K
- 0¢0.0
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?
Entertainment · Vol $115.4K
- 0¢-0.1
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?
Entertainment · Vol $99.2K
- 0¢0.0
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?
Entertainment · Vol $94.5K
- 1¢+0.1
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?
Entertainment · Vol $91.1K
Market Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.