Will Samuel Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?
Probability
27¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$24.00
Liquidity
$12.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 897h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $12.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 897.1h
- 14:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 897h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 26¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 26¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 27¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 27¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 26¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).