SportsExpires Jul 20, 2026
Creator

Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$76.3K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 20, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.1pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 29, 2026, 14:00 UTCJun 5, 2026, 13:14 UTC
updated 13:15:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-05T13-15Z

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

price pinned not settled
Trust transition

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official FIFA data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 1¢ current price

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1066.7h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 13:15:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:15:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWorld Cup: Nation to Reach Final
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

2026 fifa world cup

Reason

FIFA World Cup outright/team markets are Sports even when the team/country name is also a geopolitics keyword.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?"?

As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 13:15:00 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and -1.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 20, 2026 (2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $226.35. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $76.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

4 wallets
Open on Polymarket