UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in May?

Probability

25¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+13.0pp

24h Vol

$37.75

Liquidity

$92.15

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oce
Link
weather.gov
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 23:00May 3, 2026, 04:06
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 13pp over 24h

    Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 31.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 667.9h

    LOW
  • 04:06Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+13.0pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.

Biggest hourly move: -31.5pp at 20:00 (to 14¢).

Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · -31.5pp → 14¢
  • 20:00 · -31.5pp → 14¢
  • 06:00 · -28.5pp → 13¢
  • 05:00 · -29.0pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · -28.5pp → 13¢
  • 1d ago · -29.5pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · -29.5pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · -29.5pp → 12¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventPrecipitation in Seattle in May?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for May 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of May 2026. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

5 wallets
Open on Polymarket