Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Probability
22¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$1.0K
Liquidity
$2.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-19.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 22¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 586h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $2.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 586.1h
- 13:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 586h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 26¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 26¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 28¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 28¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 28¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
"The Boys: Season 5" is scheduled to air weekly, beginning April 8, 2026, and ending with the finale on May 20, 2026 This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Boys: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "The Boys: Season 5" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "The Boys: Season 5" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "The Boys: Season 5" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "The Boys: Season 5" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "The Boys: Season 5" is released.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).