Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in May?
Probability
28¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$115.63
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ETLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (51.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-19.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 28¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 51.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ETLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (51.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 580.9h
- 19:03SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Biggest hourly move: -18.0pp at 3d ago (to 30¢).
Show top 8 of 68 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 26¢
- 3d ago · -15.0pp → 31¢
- 3d ago · -16.5pp → 31¢
- 3d ago · -16.5pp → 30¢
- 3d ago · -18.0pp → 30¢
- 3d ago · -16.5pp → 30¢
- 4d ago · -16.5pp → 31¢
- 4d ago · -15.5pp → 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
spacexReason
Question text contains "spacex" — matched the Science keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in May?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 19:03:38 GMT, YES is priced at 28% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and -19.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $50.05. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $115.63. Spread between best bid and best ask: 51.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
