Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$16.00
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 4.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 103.1h
- 16:56SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.3pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.9pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.9pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowspacex.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.