Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?
Probability
91¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$1.8K
Liquidity
$8.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3063.5h
- 08:31SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3063h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 92¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).