Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?

1. 1

   Up 1pp over 24h

   Now 95¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $21.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.