Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?
Probability
79¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+9.5pp
24h Vol
$3.1K
Liquidity
$4.3K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 79¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 74¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 619.5h
Price movement
+9.5pp over the last 24h, now 79¢.
Biggest hourly move: +62.0pp at 2d ago (to 85¢).
Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
- 1d ago · +26.0pp → 83¢
- 1d ago · +26.0pp → 83¢
- 1d ago · +26.5pp → 84¢
- 2d ago · +29.0pp → 87¢
- 2d ago · +28.0pp → 86¢
- 2d ago · +62.0pp → 85¢
- 2d ago · +32.5pp → 84¢
- 2d ago · +34.0pp → 84¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.