Guilty-Spring
0x04dcbd9b805b220a9b2d27e4d9e649ed07902387
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
122
Open notional
$8.9K
Total PnL
$-74.62
Realised
$520.97
Win rate
75%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 122- NO
Will the US lose jobs in July?
801 shares @ 69.6¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$757.39
$199.38
- NO
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July?
812 shares @ 77.2¢·now 80.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$653.52
$26.87
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
800 shares @ 74.0¢·now 78.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$626.00
$34.00
- NO
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
871 shares @ 60.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$583.46
$61.23
- YES
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
600 shares @ 83.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$561.00
$63.28
- NO
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
771 shares @ 70.5¢·now 63.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$489.48
$-54.08
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
303 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$273.95
$1.51
- NO
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
541 shares @ 70.8¢·now 48.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$260.22
$-122.57
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
592 shares @ 41.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$257.52
$13.97
- YES
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
295 shares @ 57.3¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$228.25
$59.43
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Sara Brenner as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$22.56Jul 27, 13:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$0.06Jul 26, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$0.16Jul 26, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.3% in July?$45.49Jul 26, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.4% in July?$46.91Jul 26, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.5% in July?$22.08Jul 26, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$7.69Jul 26, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.2% in July?$13.03Jul 26, 13:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$303.62Jul 25, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$876.36Jul 25, 02:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Xabi Alonso be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?$0.00Jul 23, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 23, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$0.00Jul 23, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?$0.00Jul 23, 23:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $19.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 23:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.