Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$6.67
Liquidity
$4.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $4.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5981.9h
- 18:03SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occursAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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