Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026
Probability
11¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
-0.7pp
24h Vol
$72.16
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $1.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1560.6h
Price movement
+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: +12.4pp at 03:00 (to 13¢).
Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
- 21:00 · +10.4pp → 14¢
- 12:00 · +11.6pp → 12¢
- 11:00 · +11.7pp → 12¢
- 09:00 · +11.4pp → 12¢
- 08:00 · +11.4pp → 12¢
- 06:00 · +11.8pp → 12¢
- 03:00 · +12.4pp → 13¢
- 00:00 · +11.0pp → 11¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026LinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.