Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$22.00
Liquidity
$2.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $2.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.1h
- 13:56SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 0¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).