Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$98.16
Liquidity
$3.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-20.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1573.5h
- 10:32SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1573h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 11¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 11¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 11¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 13¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 11¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 11¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 11¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 11¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 11¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 11¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 11¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 11¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 13¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 10¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 10¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 10¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).