Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?
Probability
18¢
1h
-4.5pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$45.87
Liquidity
$2.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5995.5h
- 04:29SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5996h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:29PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 21¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 21¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 20¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 21¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region. Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify. The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count. Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).