Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.60% (HIGH) in April?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$8.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 101h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $8.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 101.0h
- 18:58SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 101h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached. Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant day in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for theOfficial government sourceextracted · highhome.treasury.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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