SportsExpires Jun 13, 2026Closed
Creator

Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+39.6pp

24h Vol

$895.78

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved YES

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED YES

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 13, 2026
UMA status
resolved
Resolution source
Primary
the events of the official match broadcast, beginning from the opening kickoff and ending at the final whistle, includin
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 13, 2026 — dispute window active.

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
100¢
Jun 10, 2026, 17:00 UTCJun 13, 2026, 03:00 UTC
updated 07:10:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-13T07-10Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 40pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

officially resolved
Trust transition

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: the events of the official match broadcast, beginning from the opening kickoff and ending at the final whistle, includin

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 07:10Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 03:59Scheduled resolution

    Market resolved 3h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

+39.6pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

updated 07:10:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 07:10:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by any member of the official FOX broadcasting team during the English broadcast of the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup 2026 match on FOX, scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 9 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the events of the official match broadcast, beginning from the opening kickoff and ending at the final whistle, including any extra time or penalty shootout, if applicable. Pre-match and post-match commentary will not be considered. For the purpose of this market, the "FOX broadcasting team" refers to the officially assigned play-by-play announcer, match analyst, sideline reporter, and rules analyst assigned to this match by FOX Sports. Remarks made by other analysts, guest commentators, players, coaches, or any other individuals not part of the officially assigned broadcast team will not count toward resolution. Prerecorded clips, AI-generated audio or video, and commercials will not count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person's first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about "Joe / Biden 5+ times," a mention of "Joe Biden" will count once). Muted, censored, or otherwise inaudible instances of a term will not qualify towards resolution. If the USA vs Paraguay match is definitively cancelled, postponed, or otherwise does not air by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." If this match is interrupted, abbreviated, or only partially aired, this market will resolve according to what has occurred up to that point. The resolution source for this market is the official English broadcast of the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup 2026 match on FOX. Only remarks made live during the official broadcast will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

fifa world cup

Reason

FIFA World Cup markets are Sports; country-name geopolitics rules should not win this phrasing.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?"?

As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 07:10:33 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +39.6pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 13, 2026 (2026-06-13T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$895.78 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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