Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the June meeting?
Probability
47¢
1h
-3.5pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$13.04
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 47¢; -3.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 88.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 53¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 48¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 50¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 61¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 49¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 50¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 57¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 50¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 49¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 47¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 47¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 49¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 51¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 50¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 53¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 53¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.5pp
to 67¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 67¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the BaAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (88.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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