Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?
Probability
72¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$2.2K
Liquidity
$3.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+19.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 280.8h
- 07:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 281h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 07:09PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 72¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 72¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 72¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 72¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 71¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 72¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 71¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 71¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 70¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 71¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 75¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 75¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 76¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 78¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 78¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 78¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.0pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.0pp
to 88¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the BaAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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