Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Puducherry Legislative Assembly election?
Probability
4¢
1h
-1.2pp
24h
+3.6pp
24h Vol
$491.63
Liquidity
$5.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 4¢; -1.2pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1210h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1210.2h
- 13:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1210h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:47PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 4¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 5¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 7¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 9¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 8¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 9¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 10¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 10¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 9¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Puducherry, India, in April–June 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Puducherry Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Puducherry Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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