EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Probability

97¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$668.04

Liquidity

$10.9K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the title of the film released in May 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and June 30, 2026 accordin
Link
the-numbers.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
97¢
May 27, 2026, 00:00 UTCJun 1, 2026, 09:08 UTC
updated 14:34:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-01T14-34Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $10.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 681.4h

    LOW
  • 14:34Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.

Biggest hourly move: +60.5pp at May 29, 13:00 UTC (to 89¢).

Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
  • May 31, 03:00 UTC · +32.3pp → 95¢
  • May 31, 02:00 UTC · +32.3pp → 95¢
  • May 30, 23:00 UTC · +39.1pp → 96¢
  • May 30, 21:00 UTC · +40.5pp → 96¢
  • May 30, 17:00 UTC · +33.6pp → 98¢
  • May 29, 18:00 UTC · +48.0pp → 89¢
  • May 29, 17:00 UTC · +48.0pp → 89¢
  • May 29, 13:00 UTC · +60.5pp → 89¢
updated 14:34:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 14:34:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventHighest Domestically Grossing May Film on June 30?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in May 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and June 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by July 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

film

Reason

Question text contains "film" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?"?

As of Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:34:36 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$668.04 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $7.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket