Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?

• 1

  Down 5pp over 24h

  Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.

• 2

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 3

  Wide spread — 14.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

• 4

  Past expiry — awaiting resolution

  Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.