Anchored-Bob
0xbe3d34441e4fd5f3c69c5a00e694376e37964dc6
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$984.75
Total PnL
$-798.66
Realised
$-206.88
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
220 shares @ 66.5¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$146.30
$0.10
- NO
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
240 shares @ 43.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$104.40
$1.20
- YES
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?
150 shares @ 50.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$72.75
$-2.25
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
120 shares @ 55.3¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$67.79
$1.39
- YES
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
75 shares @ 87.3¢·now 88.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.26
$0.82
- YES
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
80 shares @ 37.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$65.19
$35.59
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
502 shares @ 12.1¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$63.55
$2.71
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
150 shares @ 38.3¢·now 37.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.62
$-0.82
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
100 shares @ 38.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$45.50
$7.50
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
130 shares @ 38.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$43.55
$-5.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$105.55Jul 29, 03:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$10.39Jul 28, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$2.29Jul 28, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$5.45Jul 28, 05:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$7.69Jul 27, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$1.44Jul 27, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$10.00Jul 27, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$4.64Jul 27, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$11.80Jul 27, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$3.61Jul 27, 12:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$2.53Jul 27, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$119.99Jul 27, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$2.60Jul 27, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$11.80Jul 27, 08:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$101.25Jul 27, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$4.36Jul 27, 04:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$41.99Jul 26, 20:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $28.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 17:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 03:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.