EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 16, 2026
Creator

Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 50 and 74 points?

Probability

24¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$130.46

Liquidity

$29.7K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 17h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
eurovision.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-15.5pp 7d
1007550250
24¢
May 8, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 06:52 UTC
updated 06:52:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T06-52Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 17h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 17 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 17.1h

    HIGH
  • 06:52Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 17h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.

Biggest hourly move: -18.5pp at May 11, 06:00 UTC (to 24¢).

Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
  • May 11, 18:00 UTC · -15.5pp → 24¢
  • May 11, 11:00 UTC · -18.5pp → 24¢
  • May 11, 09:00 UTC · -18.5pp → 24¢
  • May 11, 07:00 UTC · -18.5pp → 24¢
  • May 11, 06:00 UTC · -18.5pp → 24¢
  • May 11, 04:00 UTC · -15.0pp → 24¢
  • May 10, 23:00 UTC · -15.0pp → 24¢
  • May 10, 19:00 UTC · -15.5pp → 24¢
updated 06:52:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:52:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventEurovision 2026: Margin of Victory
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the absolute difference in points between the first and second place candidates. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no results are announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.com/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

eurovision

Reason

Question text contains "eurovision" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 50 and 74 points?"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 06:52:40 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -15.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$130.46 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $781.37. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $29.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

15 wallets
Open on Polymarket