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EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 1, 2026

Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 225k and 250k?

Probability

1h

-1.4pp

24h

-37.6pp

24h Vol

$41.32

Liquidity

$1.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+6.7pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:51
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 38pp over 24h

    Now 9¢; -1.4pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 128h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 13.1¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 128.1h

    LOW
  • 15:51Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 128h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 7.1pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 8.4pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 8.9pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 8.8pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 10.4pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 9.6pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 12.1pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 13.9pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 15.6pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 20.7pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 12.1pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 41.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 40.2pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 40.7pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 41.4pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 40.1pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 38.2pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 34.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 33.9pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 40.1pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 34.8pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 35.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 31.2pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 31.9pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 31.9pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 31.9pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily DoubleAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (13.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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