Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 225k and 250k?
Probability
9¢
1h
-1.4pp
24h
-37.6pp
24h Vol
$41.32
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 38pp over 24h
Now 9¢; -1.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 128h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 13.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 128.1h
- 15:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 128h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 14¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.4pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 14¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 16¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 15¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.4pp
to 16¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 15¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.1pp
to 17¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.9pp
to 19¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.6pp
to 20¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.7pp
to 26¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.1pp
to 17¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 41.0pp
to 46¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.2pp
to 45¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.7pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 41.4pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.1pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.2pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.9pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.1pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.8pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.2pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily DoubleAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (13.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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