PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 15, 2026

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Puducherry Legislative Assembly election?

Probability

10¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.4pp

24h Vol

$134.13

Liquidity

$15.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.5pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:45
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1204h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 6.8¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1204.2h

    LOW
  • 19:45Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1204h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.3pp at 2d ago (to 10¢).

Show all 7 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:45 · +4.6pp → 10¢
  • 09:00 · -5.2pp → 5¢
  • 08:00 · -5.1pp → 5¢
  • 06:00 · -4.8pp → 5¢
  • 2d ago · +4.0pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · +5.3pp → 10¢
  • 2d ago · +4.7pp → 9¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPuducherry Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Puducherry, India, in April–June 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Puducherry Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Puducherry Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
eci.gov.in)
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (6.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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