Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Puducherry Legislative Assembly election?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$134.13
Liquidity
$15.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1204h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1204.2h
- 19:45SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1204h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: +5.3pp at 2d ago (to 10¢).
Show all 7 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:45 · +4.6pp → 10¢
- 09:00 · -5.2pp → 5¢
- 08:00 · -5.1pp → 5¢
- 06:00 · -4.8pp → 5¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · +5.3pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · +4.7pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Puducherry, India, in April–June 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Puducherry Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Puducherry Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumeci.gov.in)
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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