Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$26.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 277.3h
- 10:44SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 277h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 5¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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