Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 20-25%?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$13.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $13.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 276.0h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -45.3pp at May 15, 13:00 UTC (to 3¢).
Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · -6.6pp → 2¢
- May 15, 23:00 UTC · -11.6pp → 2¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -34.1pp → 2¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · -32.6pp → 2¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · -39.9pp → 3¢
- May 15, 17:00 UTC · -38.4pp → 3¢
- May 15, 15:00 UTC · -34.3pp → 3¢
- May 15, 13:00 UTC · -45.3pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
general electionReason
Election markets are Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 20-25%?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:02:38 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 30, 2026 (2026-05-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $767.01. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $13.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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