UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 7, 2026
Creator

Will "The Lost Boys" win Best Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards?

Probability

28¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$142.83

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
tonyawards.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (39.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
28¢
May 14, 2026, 21:00 UTCMay 16, 2026, 22:31 UTC
updated 22:31:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-16T22-31Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 28¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 39.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 7, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 505.5h

    LOW
  • 22:31Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.

updated 22:31:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 22:31:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventTony Awards: Best Musical Winner

Market Description

The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "The Lost Boys" win Best Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards?"?

As of Sat, 16 May 2026 22:31:55 GMT, YES is priced at 28% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 7, 2026 (2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.17. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $142.83. Spread between best bid and best ask: 39.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

2 wallets
Open on Polymarket