Will the majority of France’s starters kneel before the Euro 2020 match between Germany and France?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 100.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This is a market on whether six or more out of the eleven starting players for France will kneel in political protest before the Euro 2020 match between Germany and France, scheduled to take place on June 15, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if six of more of France’s eleven starting players kneel in political protest before the kickoff or within the first thirty seconds of the Euro 2020 match. For this market, “kneel in political protest” will mean the following: (1) the player assumes a position where at least one of their knees is touching the grass on the soccer pitch, (2) the kneeling is done as an act of political protest (as determined by MIC and reasonable consensus), and is not, for example, a non-political act such as kneeling to tie one’s shoes, (3) occurs on the soccer pitch prior to the beginning of the match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be official live broadcasts of the match, as well as any relevant, credible, news articles, or photos or videos of the match. If, for any reason, this match is postponed and a new match date is set for a start time of June 22, 2021, 3:00 PM ET or earlier, the same rules for market resolution will apply for the rescheduled match. If this match is rescheduled for a start time on any date after June 22, 2021, 3:00 PM ET, or is canceled altogether, the market will resolve 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.