Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July?
Probability
44¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$17.50
Liquidity
$46.64
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 44¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1593h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 73.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1593.4h
- 14:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1593h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 44¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 44¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 44¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves The MongolZ's main CS2 roster (defined as players listed with status = "Starter" in the "Players of The MongolZ" table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/6248/the-mongolz#tab-rosterBox) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: bLitz, Techno, mzinho, 910, and cobrazera. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active starter lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to bench/inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different 5-player active roster on HLTV. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single event will not count. For matches and events, the stand-in appears in the active 5-player lineup but with a clear marker (e.g., [SI]) to distinguish them from the core roster. The primary resolution source for this market will be HLTV; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.hltv.org/team/6248/the-mongolz#tab-rosterBoxNews consensus
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (73.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).