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CryptoMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 27, 2026

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 27?

Probability

42¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+10.0pp

24h Vol

$274.78

Liquidity

$16.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:18
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 10pp over 24h

    Now 42¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 50h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Expiry in 50h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 50 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 49.7h

    HIGH
  • 14:18Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 50h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 17.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 17.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 16.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.5pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 14.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 27, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specifieAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).