Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 27?
Probability
42¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+10.0pp
24h Vol
$274.78
Liquidity
$16.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 42¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 50h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 50h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 50 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 49.7h
- 14:18SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 50h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 42¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 42¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 41¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 41¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 41¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 41¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 40¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 40¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 40¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 40¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 38¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 37¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 37¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 35¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 33¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specifieAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).