CryptoMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 4, 2026
Creator

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 4?

Probability

1¢

1h

-0.4pp

24h

-32.3pp

24h Vol

$7.7K

Liquidity

$15.0K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 28, 2026, 19:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 09:00 UTC
updated 09:00:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T09-00Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 32pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 7h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $15.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 7 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification brief

price pinned not settled

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Binance spot pair

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 1¢ current price

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 4? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 4? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 16:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 7.0h

    HIGH
  • 09:00Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 7h.

    LOW

Price movement

-32.3pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -49.8pp at 05:00 (to 4¢).

Show top 8 of 59 hourly moves
  • 09:00 · -37.8pp → 1¢
  • 07:00 · -39.6pp → 2¢
  • 05:00 · -49.8pp → 4¢
  • 03:00 · -45.0pp → 2¢
  • 01:00 · -39.1pp → 2¢
  • 00:00 · -39.6pp → 5¢
  • 21:00 · -41.2pp → 2¢
  • 20:00 · -41.0pp → 6¢
updated 09:00:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 09:00:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same eventEthereum price on June 4?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

ethereum

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "ethereum" — matched the Crypto rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 4?"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 09:00:54 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -32.3pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 4, 2026 (2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$7.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $15.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket