Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 224h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $7.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.