What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 08:53:58 GMT, YES is priced at 76% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +25.0pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$252.84 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $252.84. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $14.6K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-may-31 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-may-31/markdown.

PoliticsExpires May 31, 2026

Creator

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?

Probability

76¢

+0.0pp

24h

+25.0pp

24h Vol

$252.84

Liquidity

$14.6K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
US Government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 5, 2026, 01:00May 6, 2026, 08:53

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T08-53Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Up 25pp over 24h
Now 76¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $14.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert if probability drops back below 71¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
US Government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 591.1h
LOW

Price movement

+25.0pp over the last 24h, now 76¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventWill the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

7 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket