PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 13, 2026
Creator

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 115-119 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Probability

26¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-4.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$181.09

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

15% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    15% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
2
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$500
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$181
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 13, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
val.se
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (45.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
26¢
Aug 11, 2026, 14:00 UTCAug 17, 2026, 21:07 UTC
updated 21:07:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-08-17T21-07Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 26¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 45.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 115-119 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 115-119 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 13, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 650.9h

    LOW
  • 21:07Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.

Biggest hourly move: -17.5pp at Aug 14, 21:00 UTC (to 19¢).

Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
  • Aug 16, 19:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 28¢
  • Aug 15, 07:00 UTC · -12.0pp → 25¢
  • Aug 15, 00:00 UTC · -15.5pp → 20¢
  • Aug 14, 23:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 25¢
  • Aug 14, 21:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 19¢
  • Aug 14, 20:00 UTC · -13.5pp → 24¢
  • Aug 14, 12:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 24¢
  • Aug 14, 05:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 26¢
updated 21:07:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 21:07:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventSweden Parliamentary Elections: Social Democratic Party # of seats?
Category · Politics

Market Description

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election. Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If S formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

parliamentary election

Reason

Parliamentary election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 115-119 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?"?

As of Mon, 17 Aug 2026 21:07:36 GMT, YES is priced at 26% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 13, 2026 (2026-09-13T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $20.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $181.09. Spread between best bid and best ask: 45.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

2 wallets
Open on Polymarket