Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 4 - May 10 be less than 16,500,000?
Probability
47¢
1h
+24.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.22
Liquidity
$2.92
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 10, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (94.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+21.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 94.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 10, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (94.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:26SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 3h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 47¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.5pp at 20:00 (to 23¢).
Show 8 hourly moves
- 03:00 · -24.0pp → 23¢
- 02:00 · -24.0pp → 23¢
- 21:00 · -24.5pp → 23¢
- 20:00 · -24.5pp → 23¢
- 18:00 · -24.0pp → 23¢
- 17:00 · -24.0pp → 23¢
- 12:00 · -3.5pp → 45¢
- 4d ago · +21.5pp → 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
5- 48¢-0.5
Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 4 - May 10 be between 16,500,000 and 17,000,000?
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Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 4 - May 10 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?
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Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 4 - May 10 not be reported by May 31?
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 4, 2026 and May 10, 2026 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million). If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for any of the dates from May 4, 2026 to May 10, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 4 - May 10 be less than 16,500,000?"?
As of Sun, 10 May 2026 03:26:53 GMT, YES is priced at 47% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +24.0pp in the last hour, and +21.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 10, 2026 (2026-05-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.22 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $40.55. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.92. Spread between best bid and best ask: 94.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
