Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-23.5pp
24h Vol
$34.68
Liquidity
$258.58
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1580.3h
- 03:40SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1580h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 18¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 42¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 44¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 39¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 47¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 42¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
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Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
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Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
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Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).