What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?"?

As of Sun, 03 May 2026 21:45:22 GMT, YES is priced at 11% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -5.5pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 10, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$79.55 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $216.76. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $793.61.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-there-be-exactly-2-earthquakes-of-magnitude-6pt5-or-higher-worldwide-from-may-4-10 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-there-be-exactly-2-earthquakes-of-magnitude-6pt5-or-higher-worldwide-from-may-4-10/markdown.

WeatherMulti-outcomeExpires May 10, 2026

Creator

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?

Probability

11¢

+0.0pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$79.55

Liquidity

$793.61

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 10, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6
Link
earthquake.usgs.gov
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

Apr 30, 2026, 16:00May 3, 2026, 21:45

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Price move
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 11¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
03
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $794 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 10, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6
Link
earthquake.usgs.gov
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 146.2h
LOW
21:45Signal
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
LOW

Price movement

-5.5pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.

Biggest hourly move: -24.0pp at 05:00 (to 17¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves

21:00 · -22.5pp → 11¢
20:00 · -22.5pp → 12¢
18:00 · -22.5pp → 12¢
17:00 · -22.5pp → 12¢
15:00 · -21.5pp → 13¢
13:00 · -21.0pp → 13¢
11:00 · -18.0pp → 17¢
05:00 · -24.0pp → 17¢

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

7 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket