Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
Probability
97¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+11.1pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$6.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1574.6h
- 09:26SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1575h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 97¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 97¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 97¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 97¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 97¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 97¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 97¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 97¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 97¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.9pp
to 97¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 97¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.9pp
to 97¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.6pp
to 97¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 85¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 87¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 88¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 88¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 90¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 90¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 90¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 90¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
12- 1¢-4.5pp
Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
Macro · Vol $136.52
- 62¢+3.5pp
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 4¢-0.7pp
Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 93¢+19.8pp
Will Kevin Cramer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
Macro · Vol $47.00
- 16¢+2.5pp
Will Chuck Schumer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 94¢+4.2pp
Will John Kennedy vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
Macro · Vol $52.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $8.4M
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $5.5M
- 100¢+0.1pp
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $4.0M
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $3.1M
- 98¢+3.9pp
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $896.2K
- 0¢-0.7pp
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $820.2K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal ReserveOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).