Will Trump and Melania's remarks not air?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$831.00
Liquidity
$255.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:21SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 19h ago
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 1¢+0.1
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $1.7M
- 1¢0.0
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $343.8K
- 1¢+0.1
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics · Vol $295.5K
- 1¢0.0
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $219.1K
- 1¢0.0
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
Politics · Vol $205.2K
- 1¢0.0
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics · Vol $154.3K
Market Description
Donald and Melania Trump are scheduled to participate in an event to honor military mothers on May 6, 2026, 12:30PM ET (https://x.com/WHPressPool/status/2051402801520013678). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald or Melania Trump say the listed term during the Honoring Military Mothers event scheduled for May 6, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Melania or Donald Trump are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about the Honoring America's military mothers event scheduled for May 6, 2026, 12:30PM ET (https://x.com/WHPressPool/status/2051402801520013678). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains "trump" — matched the Politics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump and Melania's remarks not air?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 19:21:47 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$831.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $831.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $255.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.