Will Trump Leave China after May 18?

• 01
  Volume pressure

  Heavy volume on this book — 4.5× turnover

  $1.3M traded against $278.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.