CryptoExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May?

Probability

56¢

1h

+5.5pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$262.52

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source

Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.

Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (56.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 27, 2026, 21:00May 3, 2026, 15:43
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 56.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 656.3h

    LOW
  • 15:43Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 56¢.

Biggest hourly move: +29.5pp at 04:00 (to 61¢).

Show top 8 of 43 hourly moves
  • 11:00 · +25.0pp → 57¢
  • 09:00 · +26.5pp → 59¢
  • 07:00 · +28.0pp → 61¢
  • 05:00 · +28.5pp → 61¢
  • 04:00 · +29.5pp → 61¢
  • 03:00 · +25.0pp → 56¢
  • 01:00 · +24.5pp → 56¢
  • 17:00 · +25.0pp → 57¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhat will Trump say in May?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

6 wallets
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