Will Trump say "Caspian Sea" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+59.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 6, 2025
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Up 59pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 6, 2025
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification brief
officially resolvedThe market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Reuters
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Trump say "Caspian Sea" during C5+1 Summit on November 6? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Trump say "Caspian Sea" during C5+1 Summit on November 6? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.
Recent drops
Contributor audit
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 5¢+0.1
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.8M
- 14¢0.0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.6M
- 100¢+74.4
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.4M
- 2¢+0.1
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $469.1K
- 5¢-1.4
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $442.9K
- 16¢-5.0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Geopolitics · Vol $347.6K
Market Description
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in the C5+1 Summit on November 6, 2025 (see https://thediplomat.com/2025/10/washington-to-host-central-asian-leaders-on-november-6). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified C5+1 Summit events ("The President participates in Multilateral Meetings with Central Asian Countries" and "The President Participates in a Dinner with Central Asian Countries") on November 6, 2025. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about Trump's appearances at the "The President participates in Multilateral Meetings with Central Asian Countries" and "The President Participates in a Dinner with Central Asian Countries" events (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the specifically listed events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain Q&As, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled, or relevant footage is otherwise not aired by November 6, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official video of the events (e.g., https://www.youtube.com/@WhiteHouse) and one of the following sources or their sister divisions/subsidiaries/affiliates/partner networks: AP, Forbes, Fox, RSBN, CNN, MSNBC, Reuters. Only footage from the listed source(s) will qualify.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
summitReason
Question text contains "summit" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump say "Caspian Sea" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:39:53 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +59.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 6, 2025 (2025-11-06T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $14.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
10 walletsNone.