PoliticsExpires May 1, 2026
Creator

Will Trump say "Military" at The Villages on May 1?

Probability

92¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+15.0pp

24h Vol

$2.7K

Liquidity

$25.9K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
dailycommercial.com
Type
Source not classified
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 29, 2026, 22:00May 1, 2026, 18:19
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 15pp over 24h

    Now 92¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 18:19Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 00:00Resolve

    Market resolved 18h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

+15.0pp over the last 24h, now 92¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit The Villages on May 1, 2026, 3PM ET (https://www.dailycommercial.com/story/news/local/2026/04/28/president-trump-set-to-visit-the-villages-in-florida-on-may-1-2026/89835008007/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during events at The Villages scheduled for May 1, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about Trump's visit to The Villages scheduled for May 1, 2026, 3PM ET. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Alerts

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