Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in May?

• 01
  Price move

  Up 25pp over 24h

  Now 71¢; -5.5pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

• 03
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $950 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.