Will Trump say "White House Doctor" in April?
Probability
21¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-20.0pp
24h Vol
$104.10
Liquidity
$221.50
Probability (last 7 days)
-34.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 20pp over 24h
Now 21¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 104.2h
- 15:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 22¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 22¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 26¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 26¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 28¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 28¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 28¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 28¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 29¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 30¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 32¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 33¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 35¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 36¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -38.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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